Sunday, July 27, 2008
News, In this Issue...
The Obama effect in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race
Vernon Jones and Jim Martin square off in Aug. 5 runoff
Spencer Freeman
Jim Martin
By Chuck Stanley
Just over a week remains before a runoff vote between Jim Martin and Vernon Jones to see which of the two will compete against incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss and Libertarian Alan Buckley for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat in the November general election. Each of the two Democrats is trying to shore up support going into the runoff. While Martin tries to make the most of his many public endorsements, Jones is trying to snag a slice of Obama mania for himself.
DeKalb County CEO Jones called a press conference on Wednesday at his campaign’s headquarters above a Buckhead mattress store to make a statement regarding the Aug. 5 runoff vote. In its entirety, his statement lasted less than one minute: “Jim Martin voted against Barack Obama and did not want him to be President of the United States. I voted for Obama.”
When asked why he thought this was an important issue, Jones told reporters, “Jim Martin made an issue about my vote in the past.” Jones made his statement the same day that a press release from the Martin campaign announced endorsements from Fulton County Board of Commissioners Chairman John Eaves and Commissioner Nancy Boxill.
The Martin campaign responded to Jones’ comments by reiterating earlier criticism of Jones’ voting tendencies, stating "Jim Martin has been a longtime supporter of John Edwards and voted for him in the primary, but Jim has always opposed George Bush and is running for the Senate to help Barack Obama get rid of Bush's failed policies. Vernon Jones voted for George Bush twice and said he'd consider being John McCain's running mate. That tells you all you need to know about Vernon Jones.”
A small poster adorning the door to Jones’ headquarters shows pictures of Jones and Obama placed side by side beneath the Obama slogan “Yes We Can!” The poster has been derided by Jones’ critics as an attempt to imply that Sen. Obama has endorsed Jones. Obama has not endorsed either of the candidates for the Georgia Senate seat.
In a previous interview with The Sunday Paper, Jones said he believes the groundswell of support for the Illinois Senator will translate to increased support for whichever Democratic candidate opposes Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss in the November general election. But between now and then lies the runoff. With Obama polling extremely well among black voters, it’s easy to assume that Jones, a black male Democrat like Obama, would benefit from the presidential candidate’s momentum. But Jelani Cobb, an Obama delegate, isn’t convinced that Obama mania will necessarily boost voter turnout for the runoff.
“I think folks are excited about the national race in November more so than the local races going on now,” he writes in an e-mail to The Sunday Paper. “I'm doubtful about folks being able to draft off of Obama. Both of [incumbent Congressman] John Lewis' opponents ran that change theme into the ground and [Democratic primary challenger Markel] Hutchins basically stole Obama's Web site format. But they got crushed anyway.”
Charles Bullock, who teaches political science at UGA and whose published work includes the 1992 book “Runoff Elections in the United States,” says the most important part of a runoff election is getting voters back to the polls. Based on an unimpressive turnout for the July 15 congressional primary, Bullock doesn’t see excitement over the presidential election translating to the runoff. That might be different, he says, “If the two candidates had aggressive ad campaigns [reminding voters to vote in the runoff] … I don’t see a lot of that.”
Although appeals to Obama supporters may sway some voters, Bullock says the majority of voters who show up on Aug. 5 will support the same candidate they voted for on July 15. “Those who voted for the other three candidates will have to change their vote. But I suspect a lot of them will stay home,” he says.
The question of the primary might be a moot point, anyway.
Nearly 400,000 voters showed up to cast their vote for incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss, despite the fact that he was running unopposed. Plus, only four of the GOP primary slots were contested, presumably leading to lower Republican turnout than can be expected for the general election.
Meanwhile, Jones and Martin garnered less than 370,000 votes combined in a primary that got far more publicity than its Republican counterpart. In a Rasmussen Reports survey of 500 likely Georgia voters published July 21, Saxby Chambliss led Vernon Jones 59 percent to 29 percent, and led Jim Martin 51 percent to 40 percent. Despite the small sample size of the survey, the results imply that it may take something more like an Obama miracle than an Obama effect to deliver Chambliss’ Senate seat to a Democrat in November.
“I support Senator Barack Obama, I voted for him. I share his vision for American job creation, investing in our infrastructure,” Jones said after Wednesday’s press conference. “I believe that I will work extremely well with him because of my experience as a former state legislator and at the same time as a chief executive. … Jim Martin worked for a republican governor and Jim Martin cut budgets that hurt working families and poor people. I wouldn’t have done that, and I think that’s germaine and I think that’s important in terms of where I’ll be in Washington and what I see as a priority and what he sees as a priority.” SP
The primary revisited
The Sunday Paper published the following profiles of Democrat candidates Jim Martin and Vernon Jones in our July 6 issue, prior to the July 15 primary.
Vernon Jones
“I’m waiting for Alicia Keys,” Vernon Jones says, and I can almost hear the grin spreading across his face through my cell phone. I feel like a nosy neighbor asking a grown man why he hasn’t found a nice girl to settle down with. But any time I look for information on Vernon Jones, there’s a blog entry speculating about why the 47-year-old DeKalb County CEO remains single.
“Me being single has nothing to do with building libraries … and improving the quality of life in DeKalb County,” he says. “Saxby Chambliss is married, but our men and women are still in Iraq. Saxby Chambliss is married, but he voted for an unbalanced budget. Saxby Chambliss is married, but he won’t vote to give children better access to health care, even in his home town of Moultrie, Ga. How can a married man do that?”
Jones describes himself as a conservative Democrat in the mold of Sam Nunn. According to Jones, this means a fiscally conservative focus, an emphasis on strong defense and a hard line on gay marriage and immigration. Jones points to his experience working with the department of Housing and Urban Development to slow the effects of America’s housing and foreclosure crisis in DeKalb County as evidence of his readiness to represent the state of Georgia in the U.S. Senate. He also notes his work with Jacoby Energy to convert methane gas from the Live Oak Landfill into energy as an example of his commitment to alternative energy solutions.
In his excitement to make a point, Jones can seem aggressive, and perhaps this has fueled perceptions that he is ill tempered. Allegations involving trespass, assault and rape have all been leveled against Jones and withdrawn or dropped during
When I ask how this reputation might affect his campaign, he says, “If [voters] have a choice between talking about home foreclosures and my personal life, they’ll want to talk about home foreclosures,” he tells me. “My strategy is to stick to what’s important to people.”—CS
Jim Martin
Of all the candidates running, attorney Jim Martin has the longest resume as a publicly elected official. He also seems to have the most highly mechanized campaign.
In the first 12 days of his candidacy, Martin raised more money than Vernon Jones, who had announced his candidacy nearly a year earlier. Rather than reaching Martin directly, The Sunday Paper had to make an appointment through Scott McCall, Martin’s scheduler. The day before our talk, Martin’s campaign contacted me to inquire about the shape and scope of the story. During our phone interview, Martin asked if I minded his campaign manager, Ellery Gould, listening in on our conversation to make sure he stayed on message. I did not, but it was a request I had not heard from the other candidates.
Martin has been referred to as the establishment candidate by his opponents, who have called for him to return PAC money.
“This is the first time in my career I’ve been called an insider,” he tells me, adding that PAC contributions make up only a small amount of his financing. Besides, it’s legal money, and he’ll use it to fight the GOP.
As a U.S. Senator, Martin says he would also fight to increase regulation of oil futures. He says that this, along with withdrawing our troops from Iraq and curbing America’s housing crisis, will propel the economy out of stagnation.
The housing crisis, Martin says, is particularly troubling to him, because it’s something he warned of years before Georgians first saw the effects. “One of my main messages [during the 2006 race for Lieutenant Governor] was predatory lending laws, which were repealed by Republicans, were going to cause problems.”
—CS